Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
