Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
